Suspense and Surprise

We model demand for non-instrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience. We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports. ∗We would like to thank J.P. Benoit, Eric Budish, Sylvain Chassang, Eddie Dekel, Matthew Gentzkow, Ben Golub, Navin Kartik, Scott Kominers, Michael Ostrovsky, Devin Pope, Jesse Shapiro, Joel Sobel, and Satoru Takahashi for helpful comments. Jennifer Kwok, Ahmad Peivandi, and David Toniatti provided excellent research assistance. We thank the William Ladany Faculty Research Fund and the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business for financial support.